New Delhi, April 25 (IANS) The recent United States and Israeli strikes on Iran risk creating conditions conducive to long-term terrorist expansion, with consequences likely to extend beyond Iranian territory.
The emergence of the terror group Islamic State – Khorasan Province in Iran would have far-reaching regional consequences, a report said on Saturday.
Writing for India Narrative, Peter Knoope, an expert in diplomacy and international cooperation, said that such instability affects not only the country and its population but can also have repercussions across the entire region and globally.
He recalled that the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003 led to the emergence of Daesh, though not directly or immediately, but through intermediate developments.
He noted that Sunni-driven opposition to shifts in internal power relations in Iraq triggered an influx of foreign terrorist fighters from across the globe.
He added that while the aftermath of the so-called Caliphate is now history, its traces still persist across the region and in parts of Africa and Asia.
According to the expert, the key question is whether the current intervention could lead to a resurgence of terror groups such as Daesh and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin.
He outlined several conditions that contribute to the emergence of such groups, including the proliferation of weapons, ungoverned or under-governed spaces, public disenchantment, human rights violations, suppression, and opportunity.
He said that such environments often create a vacuum where extremist elements can recruit and mobilise anger, potentially leading to violence.
Taken together, he said, rising tensions and the emergence of an identity-based “us versus them” dynamic in Iran could open the door to instability, which ISKP leadership may seek to exploit.
He warned that this could result in targeted attacks against Shia communities, institutions, and individuals.
Knoope added that it is difficult to predict the extent to which such sectarian violence might be supported, actively or passively, by other Sunni-dominated forces in the region, though it is not entirely unthinkable.
--IANS
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