New Delhi, April 12 (IANS) The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could create strategic openings for China to expand its influence across Asia, particularly at a time when the United States is heavily "engaged in another theatre,’ according to a report.
"The war in the Middle East… is also reshaping the strategic environment in ways that extend far beyond the region," the report by Japan Forward said, adding that by tying down American attention and resources, the conflict is leaving other regions "more vulnerable than they appear", creating conditions that China has historically been adept at exploiting.
The analysis underscores that Beijing does not necessarily need to trigger crises to gain an advantage. "China’s strategic approach does not rely on precipitating crises in Asia… it often benefits more from their absence, particularly when the United States is preoccupied in another theatre."
Drawing on historical patterns, the report points out that periods of intense US engagement in the Middle East have coincided with significant Chinese activity in Asia. "The years of the Iraq War offer an early example… Beijing expanded its footprint in the South China Sea with relatively limited external resistance," the report states.
Similarly, during the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, China increased military pressure around Taiwan. The report noted: "Taiwan recorded more than 900 sorties by the People’s Liberation Army into its Air Defense Identification Zone", reflecting a strategy of sustained pressure below the threshold of open conflict.
The report also highlights the impact of US military deployment patterns, stating that when key assets such as carrier strike groups are stationed in regions like the Eastern Mediterranean or Red Sea, "they are necessarily absent from the Western Pacific". This shift, it argues, can alter the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific.
According to Japan Forward, China has increasingly relied on incremental and calibrated actions, including military exercises and infrastructure development, to reshape the regional landscape without triggering direct confrontation. “Each calibrated action… has remained below the threshold of an all-out crisis. Yet, together, they have reshaped the strategic environment in ways difficult to reverse,” the report notes.
The report also draws parallels with developments along India’s northern borders, referencing the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and subsequent infrastructure build-up as part of a broader pattern of strategic positioning.
In conclusion, Japan Forward emphasises that China’s approach is driven by timing and opportunity, stating that "the objective has not been to trigger confrontation but to reshape realities gradually in ways that avoid immediate escalation".
--IANS
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