New Delhi, Oct 11 (IANS) Pakistan has planned a 2025-35 roadmap for the power sector requiring a massive $58 billion investment in electricity generation and transmission even though the country is saddled with substantial unused generation capacity in a loss-making sector, according to a report.
The report in Maldives Insight noted that on September 11, the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) conditionally approved this Integrated System Plan (ISP) 2025-35, which envisages 26,045MW of additional generation capacity while projecting peak demand to rise from 26,950MW in 2025 to 35,521MW by 2035.
However, the approval came with an unusual degree of internal reservation. All three members of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra), including its Chairman, recorded dissenting or separate advisory observations in the 45-page document.
The central question is not simply how much electricity Pakistan can generate by 2035. It is whether the country will actually need all the power it is preparing to pay for, it said.
The country’s power sector has struggled for years with capacity payments, weak electricity demand, and tariffs that have encouraged consumers to reduce their dependence on the national grid.
Nepra’s latest determination itself highlights the financial consequences. The regulator noted conflicting assessments by the Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) and the Power Planning and Monitoring Company regarding the effect of the ISP on consumer tariffs.
That creates a difficult economic equation. If demand fails to rise as projected, additional plants and transmission infrastructure could add to a system in which consumers already finance capacity that is not fully utilised.
The problem is not merely excess electricity. It is the cost of keeping excess capacity available through a system heavily influenced by fixed payments and long-term contractual obligations, the report stated.
It highlights that Pakistan’s electricity market is no longer behaving like the market for which many earlier expansion assumptions were designed.
Rooftop solar has rapidly altered consumption patterns. Households, agricultural users, and businesses have increasingly installed solar systems, often because grid electricity has become too expensive or unreliable.
The result is a gradual shift from consumers simply buying electricity from distribution companies towards consumers generating at least part of their own electricity.
The scale of the shift is difficult to capture through official net-metering figures alone. In February, the Power Division said on-grid solar capacity had reached about 7,000MW while off-grid installations had exceeded 13,000MW. The power minister subsequently put total distributed solar generation at roughly 20,000-22,000MWm according to the reports.
Other estimates are even higher. A study cited by Dawn in February estimated installed solar capacity at about 33GW when non-net-metered and off-grid systems were included.
Whatever the precise number, the direction is clear: Pakistan’s consumers are increasingly capable of meeting part of their electricity requirements without drawing from the national grid.
That creates a fundamental challenge for a long-term plan based heavily on conventional demand growth, the report observed.
--IANS
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