Mumbai, Jan 17 (IANS) Pakistan’s first shipment of rare earth minerals to the United States in October 2025 was meant to signal a new chapter in economic cooperation.

Backed by a $500 million agreement and a plan to expand mining by 2028, the deal raised hopes that Pakistan could become a key supplier in global mineral supply chains.

However, behind the optimism lies a complex reality. Deep structural, political, environmental, and security challenges continue to cast serious doubt on whether Pakistan can truly turn its vast mineral reserves into long-term economic success, as per Geopolitical Mirror report.

In October 2025, Pakistan sent its first batch of rare earth minerals to the United States, marking what both countries described as a historic breakthrough.

The shipment was not just commercial in nature but symbolic, aimed at proving that Pakistan could help the US reduce its dependence on fragile and China-dominated mineral supply chains.

A three-step roadmap was announced to scale up mining operations by 2028. Yet, despite the strong political messaging, Pakistan’s mineral sector tells a very different story.

The government claims the country holds mineral reserves worth nearly $6 trillion across a vast area.

But these figures remain unverified by international standards such as JORC or NI 43-101, which are used globally to assess mineral resources in a transparent and reliable way.

Without such certification, investors find it difficult to trust official estimates. This lack of credible data raises doubts about whether Pakistan’s mineral wealth is as large and profitable as claimed.

This uncertainty partly explains why Pakistan’s mining sector contributes only about 3.2 per cent to its GDP and just 0.1 per cent to global mineral exports, despite decades of economic pressure to exploit these resources.

China’s long involvement in Pakistan’s economy also highlights these limitations. Through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Beijing has invested around $65 billion, yet Pakistan’s rare earth and mining industries remain underdeveloped.

Several Chinese-backed mining projects have faced criticism. The Saindak copper mine, for example, has been accused of poor transparency, limited local benefits, and environmental damage, including water contamination and declining crop yields.

Ironically, even if Pakistan successfully extracts rare earth minerals with US support, it will still face another major hurdle: refining.

China controls most of the world’s mineral refining capacity. This means raw minerals from Pakistan would likely still depend on Chinese processing, leaving the US vulnerable to the same supply risks it is trying to avoid.

Although China temporarily suspended export restrictions on certain rare earth minerals in a deal with the US, this relief is only short-term.

Once the suspension ends, Washington could again face pressure. Even under ideal conditions, experts say it would take at least a decade before Pakistani minerals could make a meaningful difference to global supply chains.

Pakistan’s outdated mining technology further weakens its position. The country still relies on inefficient extraction methods and mainly exports raw minerals instead of processed products, losing a large share of potential revenue.

Legal and political complications also stand in the way. After the 18th Constitutional Amendment in 2010, provinces gained control over their natural resources.

This means the federal government cannot easily promise mineral access to foreign partners without provincial consent. Any disagreement can delay or even block projects.

Given these realities, many analysts believe the US-Pakistan mineral partnership may be driven more by political signalling than practical outcomes.

--IANS

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